Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.036205 20.561679 23.289327 26.451266 30.012719 33.897010 38.451344
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.166606 17.541107 21.469612 26.369029 32.303290 39.245525 47.969527
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.396364 16.177561 20.793625 26.821291 34.460435 43.793321 56.031925
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 10.921038 14.934756 20.045434 26.995079 36.159618 47.787745 63.610431
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.643068 13.739252 19.150485 26.772989 37.176476 50.813760 69.968182
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.762380 12.956608 18.684479 27.012851 38.734843 54.552986 77.404729
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.224970 12.578005 18.703893 27.868848 41.129124 59.493130 86.696021
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.433854 11.744900 17.990321 27.594579 41.863323 62.120115 92.852544
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.446883 10.519610 16.591275 26.184422 40.811545 62.086487 95.123992
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.107647 10.252913 16.590022 26.842326 42.832288 66.584337 104.220298
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.816036 10.030617 16.629326 27.546752 44.941730 71.298059 113.859441
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.361543 9.500640 16.137842 27.367304 45.643906 73.886112 120.356585
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.868876 8.873519 15.455917 26.852780 45.812206 75.707047 125.850962
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.524963 8.470876 15.111290 26.863450 46.823184 78.900933 133.688912
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.290652 8.237128 15.026722 27.291731 48.528723 83.269528 143.610745
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.036527 7.944294 14.815043 27.479091 49.825913 87.021021 152.691914
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.740513 7.547163 14.387054 27.249719 50.377901 89.540380 159.814437
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.541648 7.315098 14.234953 27.494779 51.759583 93.509509 169.564202
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.445068 7.271635 14.422489 28.364673 54.294246 99.569561 183.194593
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.203193 6.920247 14.008128 28.085963 54.723152 101.967252 190.519024
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.840054 6.292174 13.020005 26.652175 52.928584 100.321136 190.557873
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.754524 6.229537 13.123513 27.321107 55.102197 105.894089 203.839790
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.678610 6.180490 13.248978 28.037301 57.399032 111.790597 217.972026